Jumping to Conclusions: How to Avoid Jumping to Conclusions

Jumping to conclusions (JTC or inference-observation confusion) is a psychological phenomenon in which a person comes to an unwarranted decision—usually a negative assumption—without all of the information. Many people jump to conclusions in their thinking patterns because they fail to realize they’re missing all the facts, or they have overconfidence in their analytical abilities.

Jumping to conclusions can also result from preconceived notions, prejudices, or unconscious bias rather than real-time information. Jumping to conclusions can have significant negative consequences in every area of your life, including in the workplace.

Researchers identify three different types of jumping to conclusions:

1. 1. Fortune telling: In this form of jumping to conclusions, you believe you know how a situation will resolve without enough information.
2. 2. Labeling: When you label, you use preconceptions, fallacies, or overgeneralizations to make assumptions about a person or situation rather than relying on existing evidence.
3. 3. Mind reading: This form of jumping to conclusions involves believing you understand how someone is thinking without supporting evidence.

There are many ways you may find yourself jumping to negative conclusions while decision-making in the workplace, including:

• Being quick to judge someone’s performance: If someone turns in a project late or performs unsatisfactorily in a meeting, you may indulge in negative thoughts about their performance or commitment. However, without further investigating and talking to them and their coworkers, you’re relying on a snap judgment rather than an informed opinion. There are many other reasons they may be struggling with deadlines, such as family trouble or miscommunication about work expectations.
• Making assumptions about a potential hire: In the hiring process, jumping to conclusions can create unfair advantages and disadvantages for applicants. A hiring manager may accidentally rely on preconceived notions about potential hires or the general population instead of focusing on the application materials and interview.
• Using shortcuts to summarize a target demographic: When companies identify their target markets or analyze market research, they may jump to the wrong conclusion about the needs and desires of particular demographics and build their foundation on a faulty assumption. For example, you may assume all young people want more social media platforms.

Jumping to conclusions can have significant negative consequences in the workplace. It can generate unnecessary conflicts between employees, create unfair conditions in hiring, and cause businesses to rely on assumptions and preconceptions rather than holistic market research.

Here’s how to avoid jumping to conclusions in the workplace:

1. 1. Identify your sources of information. To stop jumping to conclusions, you first need to identify where you’re getting your information. The aim is to gather information from various reliable sources; if you rely on your own experience or cognitive biases, you’re at risk of extrapolation from limited, subjective sources.
2. 2. Gather all the facts. Identify all the possible sources of information, and work to consult each one. For example, if you’re concerned about the performance of a particular employee, consider consulting their coworkers, their boss, and the employee themselves before you make any assumptions about why they’re struggling.
3. 3. Consult trusted coworkers or resources. In addition to gathering information on your own, consult trusted mentors or guides to ensure you’re accessing all crucial sources of information. In the case of a big business proposal or wide-reaching decision, present your findings for review before moving forward.

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