Understanding the 5 Stages of the Fashion Cycle

A fashion trend occurs when a particular item, silhouette, color, or other new look rises in popularity. Many factors can influence a trend or fad, including iconic celebrity outfits, fashion merchandising firms, designer shows, and textile manufacturers. Fashion trends are cyclical, going through a five-stage cycle that starts with introducing the trend and ends with obsolescence. Once a trend reaches peak popularity, it will begin to decline in popularity until it is considered outdated and unfashionable, eventually entering the end stage of the cycle, where it is rejected by the fashion industry and consumers. However, due to the cyclical nature of fashion, the rejected trend may eventually re-enter the cycle after obsolescence.

The fashion cycle is a natural cycle by which a fashion trend is introduced, rises to mainstream popularity, declines, and finally gets rejected in the obsolescence stage. Here is a breakdown of the five stages in a standard fashion cycle:

1. 1. Introduction: The introduction stage is when the new style first enters the fashion world. This introduction can be part of a new haute couture design during fashion week, an outfit worn by a well-known figure, or a calculated effort from a marketing agency or manufacturer. The style is usually only available in small quantities from a handful of different designers or retailers, often at a high price.
2. 2. Increase: The increase stage (also known as the “fashion acceptance” stage) is when the new fashion style begins gaining momentum and traction in the fashion industry, officially receiving the coveted “trend” label. During the rise stage, more fashion leaders and trendsetters wear outfits that incorporate the idea, from social media influencers to celebrities, increasing consumer demand. In response to this acceptance by fashion influencers, more retail stores will begin carrying the trend.
3. 3. Peak: In the peak stage, the trend has reached full saturation in the general public, and many everyday consumers begin wearing the trend. Most retailers will have identified and replicated the trend, and it will be available through mass production at a wide variety of price levels, especially at lower prices.
4. 4. Decline: In the decline stage, the trend will have become oversaturated in the market. During this period of time, the trend’s intense popularity will begin to turn off consumers who want their outfits to feel fashion-forward and unique rather than mainstream.
5. 5. Obsolescence: Once the trend has reached the end of the fashion cycle, it is considered outdated and out-of-fashion by mainstream fashion wearers, who have moved on to newer trends in the introduction or increase stages. Reaching obsolescence doesn’t mean a rejected trend will never reenter the cycle. The cycle is in a constant state of repetition, bringing back “old fashions” to send them through the movement of fashion. For example, the life cycle of jean waistlines: high-waisted jeans saw peaks in popularity during the 1940s, the late 1970s and early 1980s, and the 2010s, while low-waisted jeans saw peaks in between these years, in the 1960s and late 1990s through the early 2000s.

For aspiring fashion designers, the fashion cycle can be a huge help—or a huge distraction. Here are a few ways to use your knowledge of the fashion cycle to improve your design process:

• Focus on need fulfillment instead of trends. Spending too much time and creative energy trying to identify the next trend can lead to burnout. Fashion moves quickly. In some cases, a particular fashion style can rise and decline in less than a couple of years. Instead of worrying about trends, think about “filling needs”—for instance, if oversized coats are on-trend, there may be an unmet demand for comfortable, slim-fitting coats. Similarly, think about your own fashion needs and how you can use your designs to appeal to them. Being authentic to yourself in your designs will result in a fashion line that you love, rather than one solely influenced by trends.
• Remember that change is natural. One of your designs may become a huge trend, but it will begin to decline once it reaches the peak stage and eventually be rejected as a natural part of its life span. When your design enters obsolescence, it’s important to remember that this stage of the cycle occurs with all trends, not just yours. Change is ever-occurring in the fashion process, and you and your designs will continue to grow and shift throughout your career.
• Follow your intuition. When a particular style starts to become outdated, you may want to remove it from your fashion line, but that may not be necessary. If you’ve created a unique silhouette or design that is entering obsolescence, consider making it a mainstay in your line, rather than removing it to chase the next trend. As a designer, it’s important to follow your intuition rather than the trends of the revolving fashion cycle if your aim is to create a timeless garment that consumers adore. Iconic designer Diane von Furstenberg and her signature wrap dress serve as an excellent example of how sticking to your designs rather than chasing the fashion cycle can result in long-term success. The designer’s signature wrap dress was released in the early 70s to critical acclaim, decades after the silhouette was invented by designer Charles James in the 1930s. Furstenberg placed her own spin on the dress, adding a collar and elongating the sleeves to create a sleek, versatile silhouette fit for a date night or the office. Furstenberg made the dress a permanent part of her line and, decades later, the timeless silhouette continues to be a reliable fashion staple.

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